Wednesday, 12 December 2012

Commodities Index

Commodities Index Biography
Coffee futures have been searching for a bottom and the market could be close to an upturn.  Coffee prices have fallen about 50 percent since early 2011.  The fundamnetals don't look incredibly bullish, but the current prices might indicate some good value in coffee.
Brazil had a very large crop in the latest season and that has helped replenish supplies.  Brazil will have lower production in the next year, which might help support prices.  On the demand side, traders are worried about demand falling in Europe, which could put more pressure on coffee prices.
Looking at the technical side, the commercial traders have been accumulating positions throughout the downturn.  They are now at levels where the market had a long term bottom in 2009.  Large speculators are holding a record short position and there might not be much more firepower to the downside.
Coffee has support in the 1.40 to 1.50 area.  There might not be much more room to the downside.  These are the times to look for a long term bottom.  Weather has been good thus far in Brazil for coffee, but there are usually some weather issues every year.  There could be some good opportunities trading coffee in the
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